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February 12th, 2019 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.

Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)".  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!

Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity of each hero in Ranked and Unranked play:

Remember, only the heroes whose win rates are highlighted blue/orange with white text have exceeded their margin of error.  Heroes which do not exceed the margin of error are considered to have too little data to confirm that they have changed in any significant way.  Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that repeated tests would confirm the true value lies within the bounds of the confidence interval.

The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) There are no statistically significant changes to report, other than Abathur's slight increase in win rate in Unranked play.  However, even this is not necessarily a big deal, given that it only barely exceeds the margin of error.  As such, all I can say for certain is that it's very likely that the patch has made him largely easier to play, which is why his win rate trended upwards instead of downwards despite more people playing him this week.

2) Neither Rehgar's heroic choices nor Whitemane's Lvl 4 talents saw any statistically significant shifts.  Both tables are provided below.

In the case of Rehgar, it's likely due to general saturation.  With Ancestral already being the most popular pick by a 90-10 ratio, there wasn't likely to be a statistically significant increase because there isn't much higher for the talent to go.

With Whitemane, it's probably because of what I've been saying all along regarding High Inquisitor: even with these nerfs, it's still by far one of the strongest talent options she has in that tier.  Everybody has always underestimated the strength of this talent in its original form in large part due to how Q build was even more broken when she first released.  And it was because of that underestimation that the talent got an unnecessary buff soon after release.  So it's not too surprising to me that it's still a powerful talent even with a nerf as large as it got.

Of course, these changes didn't reach statistical significance either, so this is admittedly guesswork on my part.

Looking for more of my work?  My last article discusses concerns about snowballing and the "passive meta" that the new changes may bring if not handled properly.  That article is located here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
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